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Objective To explore the correlation between the incidence of foodborne diseases and meteorological factors in Jinan, and to provide targeted measures for the prevention and control of foodborne diseases. Methods Data from the reporting systems of two sentinel hospitals for active surveillance of foodborne diseases from 2013 to 2021 in Jinan were collected. The meteorological data in the same period in Jinan were also collected. The generalized additive model was used to explore the nonlinear relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of foodborne diseases, and threshold function analysis was use to perform subsection regression. Results The incidence of foodborne diseases was positively correlated with daily average temperature (rs=0.23), relative humidity (rs=0.05), and daily average wind speed (rs=0.01), and negatively correlated with daily average air pressure (rs=-0.19). Based on the GAM results and segmented regression analysis of meteorological factors, it was found that when the daily average temperature was below or above the threshold of 24.63°C, for every 1°C increase in daily average temperature, the incidence of foodborne diseases correspondingly increased by 0.04% and 0.18%. When the daily average wind speed was above the threshold of 2.26 m/s, the incidence of foodborne diseases decreased by 0.36% for every 1 m/s increase in the daily average wind speed. Conclusion Nine years of observation and data analysis have shown that meteorological factors such as daily average temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, and wind speed are related to the incidence of foodborne diseases. These findings suggest that meteorological factors may be important factors leading to foodborne diseases, which provides an important scientific basis for formulating effective prevention and control measures.
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Objective:To explore the distribution of airborne pollen in summer and autumn in Taiyuan, analyze the correlation between pollen characteristics, meteorological factors and allergic sensitization, and provide for the prevention and treatment of allergic diseases in this. Methods:The gravity sedimentation method was used to investigate the types, quantities and dispersion patterns of airborne pollen in Taiyuan City from July 21, 2022 to October 20, 2022. he meteorological and patient information was collected during the same period SPSS 26.0 software. Results:①A total of 17 118 pollen grains were collected, and identified as 14 families, 10 genera, and 4 species. The peak period for pollen dispersal in summer and autumn in Taiyuan City from late August to early September. airborne pollen Artemisia（66.62%）, Cannabis/Humulus（17.79%）, Sophora japonica（8.18%）, Chenopodiaceae/Amaranthaceae（2.83%）, Gramineae（2.11%）. ②The concentration of airborne pollen in Taiyuan City positively correlated with the average temperature（5-20℃） and maximum temperature（11-30℃） within a certain range（r=0.547, 0.315, P<0.05）. ③The content of airborne pollen in Taiyuan City positively correlated with the number of visits and allergen positive rate of patients with allergic rhinitis（AR） in our hospital（r=0.702, 0.747, P<0.05）. Conclusion:The peak period for airborne pollen dispersal during the summer and autumn seasons in Taiyuan City from late August to early September. The dominant pollen is Artemisia, Cannabis/Humulus, Sophora japonica, Chenopodiaceae/Amaranthaceae, Gramineae, and the absolute advantage pollen is Artemisia. Meteorological factors pollen content. Within a certain range, temperature the diffusion and transportation of pollen. The number of pollen grains the number of visits, which can serve as an environmental warning indicator for AR patients to take preventive, thereby reducing the risk of allergies.
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Male , Humans , Seasons , Pollen , Rhinitis, Allergic , Allergens , CitiesABSTRACT
BACKGROUND@#Weather conditions are a possible contributing factor to age-related macular degeneration (AMD), a leading cause of irreversible loss of vision. The present study evaluated the joint effects of meteorological factors and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on AMD.@*METHODS@#Data was extracted from a national cross-sectional survey conducted across 10 provinces in rural China. A total of 36,081 participants aged 40 and older were recruited. AMD was diagnosed clinically by slit-lamp ophthalmoscopy, fundus photography, and spectral domain optical coherence tomography (OCT). Meteorological data were calculated by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis and were matched to participants' home addresses by latitude and longitude. Participants' individual PM2.5 exposure concentrations were calculated by a satellite-based model at a 1-km resolution level. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models paired with interaction analysis were performed to investigate the joint effects of meteorological factors and PM2.5 on AMD.@*RESULTS@#The prevalence of AMD in the study population was 2.6% (95% CI 2.42-2.76%). The average annual PM2.5 level during the study period was 63.1 ± 15.3 µg/m3. A significant positive association was detected between AMD and PM2.5 level, temperature (T), and relative humidity (RH), in both the independent and the combined effect models. For PM2.5, compared with the lowest quartile, the odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) across increasing quartiles were 0.828 (0.674,1.018), 1.105 (0.799,1.528), and 2.602 (1.516,4.468). Positive associations were observed between AMD and temperature, with ORs (95% CI) of 1.625 (1.059,2.494), 1.619 (1.026,2.553), and 3.276 (1.841,5.830), across increasing quartiles. In the interaction analysis, the estimated relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) and the attributable proportion (AP) for combined atmospheric pressure and PM2.5 was 0.864 (0.586,1.141) and 1.180 (0.768,1.592), respectively, indicating a synergistic effect between PM2.5 and atmospheric pressure.@*CONCLUSIONS@#This study is among the first to characterize the coordinated effects of meteorological factors and PM2.5 on AMD. The findings warrant further investigation to elucidate the relationship between ambient environment and AMD.
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Humans , Adult , Middle Aged , Cross-Sectional Studies , Air Pollutants/analysis , Particulate Matter/analysis , China/epidemiology , Macular Degeneration/etiology , Meteorological ConceptsABSTRACT
Objective To analyze the incidence trend of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) and its correlation with meteorological factors in Children in Kaizhou District, Chongqing from 2018 to 2021, and to provide a theoretical basis for the diagnosis and treatment of HFMD in children. Methods The HFMD epidemic information was collected from 2018 to 2021 in Kaizhou District of Chongqing by using the China Disease Surveillance Information and Report Management System. The epidemiological characteristics of HFMD were descriptively analyzed, and the correlation between HFMD incidence and meteorological factors was analyzed by multiple regression. Results A total of 5 121 HFMD cases were reported in Kaizhou District of Chongqing from 2018 to 2021, with an average annual incidence of 143.30/100 000. The incidence of HFMD fluctuated from 120.87/100,000 to 159.78/100,000 from 2018 to 2021, showing a downward trend year by year. There were 2929 males and 2192 females with HFMD. The incidence of HFMD was the highest in early childhood (70.13/100 000), followed by pre-school age (43.06/100 000). There was significant difference in the incidence of HFMD among different age groups (χ2=53.497, P<0.05). The cases were mainly scattered children (3127 cases, 61.06%). The second was nursery children (1627 cases, 31.77%). In addition, there were 289 cases of students (5.64%). There were 1084 laboratory-confirmed cases in Kaizhou District of Chongqing from 2018 to 2021, including 269 (24.82%) children with EV71 infection, 178 (16.42%) children with Cox A16 infection, and 637 (58.76%) children with other enterovirus infections. There were significant differences in pathogen composition among different years (Z=32.75, P<0.05). From 2018 to 2021, the proportion of EV71 increased year by year, while COX16 and other enterovirus infections showed a downward trend year by year. Average daily temperature (OR=1.873) and average daily pressure (OR=-1.498) were independent risk factors for HFMD in Kaizhou District of Chongqing (P<0.05). Conclusion The reported incidence of HFMD in Kaizhou District of Chongqing shows a decreasing trend, and the incidence is closely related to temperature and atmospheric pressure. It is still necessary to strictly implement the prevention and control measures in key population in the season of high incidence. The main virus is EV71, which can be vaccinated with EV71 HFMD vaccine to reduce the occurrence of severe cases.
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Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of initial acute cerebral infarction (ACI) and its correlation with meteorological factors, and to provide theoretical basis for the prevention and treatment of ACI. Methods Atotal of 308 ACI patients admitted to our hospital from 2019 to 2020 were retrospectively analyzed, and the age, gender, height, weight, complications, onset season and initial symptoms of all patients were systematically analyzed from the hospital case system. Collected during the same period of meteorological data, including: monthly average temperature (℃), monthly mean minimum temperature (℃), monthly average highest temperature (℃), monthly average diurnal range (℃), the average daily air pressure (kPa), etc., by using circular distribution analysis the season of incipient ACI onset regularity, the linear correlation analysis and multiple stepwise regression analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and the incipient ACI onset. Results The male to female ratio of 308 patients was 1.15:1. A among of 55.84% of the patients were 65 years old or older and mainly lived in urban areas (77.27%). The main risk factors were hypertension (24.03%), followed by hyperlipidemia (24.03%). The incidence was mainly in winter (30.84%) and spring (26.62%). The first symptoms are headache, dizziness, unclear speech, followed by malignant, tinnitus, vomiting, hemiplegia, dysphagia, etc. The number of ACI cases was highest in January and December, and lowest in May and June.Linear correlation analysis showed that the number of ACI cases was negatively correlated with monthly mean air temperature, monthly mean minimum air temperature and monthly mean daily range ( r=-0.362 , -0.429, -0.374, P<0.05), and positively correlated with monthly mean air pressure ( r=0.317, P<0.05). The meteorological factors that affected the incidence of ACI were monthly mean minimum temperature, followed by monthly mean daily range (P<0.05). Conclusion Meteorological factors are the influencing factors of the incidence of initial ACI. The incidence of initial ACI is high under low temperature and high atmospheric pressure. Active intervention should be given to reduce the incidence.
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Objective To provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of notifiable infectious diseases in preschool children, and to improve the service level of children's health management. Methods Infectious disease information was obtained from the Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and the number of permanent residents was obtained from Shanghai Statistical Yearbook. Excel 2019 was used to organize and calculate data and draw charts. Descriptive statistical methods were used for analyzing disease ranking and epidemic trends. Seasonal characteristics were calculated by concentration M value and circular distribution, α=0.05. Results In the reports of notifiable infectious diseases for preschool children, boys (60.93%) were significantly more than girls, and the largest number of children reported were 3-4 years old (43.19%). The unit with the largest number of reports was Shanghai Children's Medical Center (47.31%). The order of the diseases was hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), chickenpox, mumps, scarlet fever, influenza, and infectious diarrhea. HFMD accounted for 73.52% of the total (46 541/63 304). The incidence of notifiable infectious diseases among preschool children had been increasing since 2005, reaching a peak in 2014, and then showing a downward trend overall. In the 17 years from 2005 to 2021, there were 3 years (2008, 2010, and 2018) with a concentration M value of 0.3-0.5, indicating that there was a certain seasonality, and one year (2020) with an M value of 0.5-0.7, indicating obvious seasonality. The peak of incidence mostly occurred from June to August. Conclusion It is suggested to strengthen the health guidance of HFMD in preschool children and increase the vaccination rate of HFMD vaccine to reduce the health harm of HFMD to preschool children. The prevention and control of COVID-19 has had an inhibitory effect on the occurrence of notifiable infectious diseases in preschool children.
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AIM: To investigate the impact of meteorological factors in different environments in the eastern and western regions of China on the incidence of lipid-abnormal dry eye.METHODS: This is a multicenter retrospective study. From March 1, 2021 to February 28, 2022, all patients with dry eye were selected from the ophthalmology clinic of Nanjing Hospital of Chinese Medicine Affiliated to Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine and Friendship Hospital of Xinjiang Yili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture. General data(gender, age, employment and education)and climate data for outdoor environments(temperature, humidity, air quality index and wind)on the day of the visit were collected. Patients who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were selected. Single factor, multiple factors and nonlinear model analysis were applied to identify environmental factors of lipid-abnormal dry eye in both regions.RESULTS: There was no significant difference in the incidence of lipid-abnormal dry eye between Nanjing and Yili in different seasons. The incidence of lipid-abnormal dry eye in Yili was significantly higher in all seasons than in Nanjing(P&#x003C;0.001). The results of univariate research showed that the factors affecting the incidence of lipid-abnormal dry eye were gender, employment, humidity, air quality, and wind. The results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that humidity, temperature and air quality were statistically significant, and remained significant after adjusting for the three confounding factors of age, gender and employment situation. Nonlinear analysis showed that the probability of lipid-abnormal dry eye increased with the decrease of temperature when the temperature was below 10℃; within the range of 10℃～15℃, the probability of lipid-abnormal dry eye tended to stabilize. When the temperature exceeded 15℃, the probability of lipid-abnormal dry eye increased with the increase of temperature. Humidity was negatively correlated with the onset of lipid-abnormal dry eye. As humidity increased, the probability of lipid-abnormal dry eye decreased.CONCLUSIONS: The risk of lipid-abnormal dry eye in Yili is higher than that in Nanjing throughout the four seasons. Humidity, temperature, air quality and other environmental and meteorological factors can all affect the incidence of lipid-abnormal dry eye.
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Objective To analyze the clinical characteristics and meteorological factors of patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) in Qinghai Plateau area, and to provide a theoretical basis for the diagnosis and treatment of patients with chronic heart failure. Methods A total of 356 patients with CHF admitted to our hospital in Qinghai Plateau area from 2019 to 2020 were selected, and the number of cases, age, gender, comorbidity, NYHA cardiac function classification of CHF patients in Qinghai Plateau area from 2019 to 2020 were counted. To compare NYHA cardiac function classification and underlying diseases in CHF patients at different ages and altitudes in Qinghai Plateau area. The daily average temperature (℃), daily temperature and daily range (℃), daily average wind speed (m/s), daily average air pressure (kPa) and daily average relative humidity (%) in Qinghai Plateau from 2019 to 2020 were collected. According to the general clinical data of patients, the changes of the monthly incidence of CHF patients were analyzed. Pearson correlation analysis was used to compare the correlation between the monthly incidence of CHF patients and meteorological factors, and to explore the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of CHD in Qinghai Plateau. Results Among the 356 CHF patients, there were 181 males and 175 females, with an average age of (72.47 ±6.49) years old. The NYHA classification of cardiac function was grade II in 103 cases, grade ⅲ in 198 cases, and grade ⅳ in 55 cases. NYHA cardiac function classification increased with age, and there was significant difference in NYHA cardiac function classification among CHF patients of different ages (P<0.05). Among 356 CHF patients, 91 cases (25.56%) were complicated with hypertension, 63 cases (17.70%) were complicated with coronary heart disease, 57 cases (16.01%) were complicated with diabetes, and 40 cases (11.24%) were complicated with hypergenic heart disease. 25 cases (7.02%) were complicated with heart valve disease. Hypertension, coronary heart disease, diabetes mellitus, hypergenic heart disease and valvular heart disease increased with age, and there were statistically significant differences between CHF patients with different ages and underlying diseases (P<0.05). CHF patients in Qinghai Plateau region were mainly concentrated in January-March and October-December. Taking the number of CHD admissions as the dependent variable and each meteorological factor as the independent variable, the correlation between each factor was compared. The results showed that the number of CHF cases was positively correlated with the daily temperature range and daily mean air pressure, and negatively correlated with the average daily temperature (P<0.05). Daily temperature range (OR=2.61) and daily mean air pressure (OR=1.89) were independent risk factors for CHF in Qinghai Plateau area (P<0.05). Conclusion CHF is more prevalent in elderly people in high altitude areas in Qinghai Plateau. For months with high temperature changes, wind speed, we should pay attention to weather changes and take preventive measures in advance.
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Background. Ambient aeroallergens and organic or inorganic air pollutants are known to cause asthma exacerbation and subsequent asthma-related hospital admissions. Methods. This study was carried out to study the impact of meteorological factors, air pollution, pollens over hospital visits for respiratory illness in north Delhi region from July 2014 to June 2015. Daily monitoring of pollen grains was done on the roof of the multistorey building (height up to 20m) of the Institute. Meteorological factors including temperature, relative humidity, and precipitations were recorded daily. Daily concentrations of nitric dioxide (NO2), particulate matter (PM2.5) and sulphur dioxide (SO2) were also recorded. Number of hospital visits of patients with respiratory illness were assessed in relation to air pollutants (NO2, SO2 and PM2.5) and climate change (temperature, relative humidity and rain). Results. During the study period, 113,462 pollen counts were recorded. Two highest peaks of mean pollen counts were observed in post-monsoon season (October-2014) and in the spring season (March 2015). The maximum and minimum pollen concentration was observed in the month of March 2015 (18818/m3) and August 2014 (4731/m3). Our results showed that pollen numbers significantly correlated with respiratory emergency department patient visits (P=0.037, r=0.604), and temperature and humidity (P=0.711, r=-120, and (P=0.670, r=-0.137), respectively. NO2 significantly correlated with SO2, respiratory emergency department patient visits and new respiratory OPD patients (P=0.017, r=0.670, P=0.031, r=0.622 and P=0.016, r=0.675, respectively). A statistically significant correlation between rainfall and SO2 was observed (P=0.004, r=-0.757) in the present study. Conclusion. Our study suggests that significant increase in pollen concentration and air pollutants in the ambient environment causes respiratory illness.
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Objective To study the epidemiological features of hand， foot， and mouth disease （HFMD） in Minhang District of Shanghai and to explore the possible effects of meteorological factors on the onset of HFMD， aiming to provide a reference for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods The incidence data of HFMD in Minhang District from 2014 to 2018 were collected for descriptive analysis. The data of meteorological factors that might affect HFMD were analyzed by Pearson analysis and multiple linear stepwise regression. Results The average incidence rate of HFMD in Minhang District from 2014 to 2018 was 271.51 per 100 000. The incidence of Huacao， Pujiang and Maqiao community were the highest. The incidence of HFMD in males was higher than in females and the 0‒5 age group had the largest number of cases， mainly in scattered children and children in kindergartens. The results of multiple linear stepwise regression analysis showed that the incidence of HFMD was negatively correlated with the weekly average air pressure （ b =-4.32， P =0.004）， and was positively correlated with the weekly minimum temperature （ b =2.62， P =0.040） and the weekly average relative humidity （ b =1.71， P =0.010）. The correlation with weekly average temperature， weekly maximum temperature， weekly precipitation， weekly average air pressure and weekly average water vapor pressure was not significant. Conclusion Meteorological factors in Minhang District of Shanghai are closely related to the occurrence of HFMD. Comprehensive measures should be taken to prevent and control HFMD.
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Objective To study the epidemiological features of hand， foot， and mouth disease （HFMD） in Minhang District of Shanghai and to explore the possible effects of meteorological factors on the onset of HFMD， aiming to provide a reference for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods The incidence data of HFMD in Minhang District from 2014 to 2018 were collected for descriptive analysis. The data of meteorological factors that might affect HFMD were analyzed by Pearson analysis and multiple linear stepwise regression. Results The average incidence rate of HFMD in Minhang District from 2014 to 2018 was 271.51 per 100 000. The incidence of Huacao， Pujiang and Maqiao community were the highest. The incidence of HFMD in males was higher than in females and the 0‒5 age group had the largest number of cases， mainly in scattered children and children in kindergartens. The results of multiple linear stepwise regression analysis showed that the incidence of HFMD was negatively correlated with the weekly average air pressure （ b =-4.32， P =0.004）， and was positively correlated with the weekly minimum temperature （ b =2.62， P =0.040） and the weekly average relative humidity （ b =1.71， P =0.010）. The correlation with weekly average temperature， weekly maximum temperature， weekly precipitation， weekly average air pressure and weekly average water vapor pressure was not significant. Conclusion Meteorological factors in Minhang District of Shanghai are closely related to the occurrence of HFMD. Comprehensive measures should be taken to prevent and control HFMD.
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Resumen Introducción: Diversas investigaciones han intentado establecer el impacto de algunos parámetros meteorológicos y de calidad del medio ambiente en la transmisión del SARS-CoV-2, tomando en consideración las características geográficas de cada país y con el fin de mitigar el avance de la enfermedad mediante el control de esos factores. Objetivo: Analizar la evidencia existente sobre la posible relación entre factores ambientales y la morbilidad y mortalidad por SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 en el panorama mundial y colombiano. Metodología: Se realizó una revisión exhaustiva de la literatura científica en las bases de datos electrónicas. Además, se analizó el impacto de algunas variables ambientales y la gravedad de los casos de COVID-19 durante el período del 8 de abril al 29 de julio de 2020 en la ciudad Bogotá. Resultados: El análisis correlacional entre la ocupación de camas UCIs en Bogotá con los factores ambientales como temperatura, las concentraciones de PM2 5, O3, NO, NO2 y CO mostraron una relación inversamente significativa. Entre tanto, se presentó una correlación positiva entre los niveles de óxidos de nitrógeno (NO/NO2) y el monóxido de carbono (CO). Algunos de estos resultados posiblemente están relacionados con los efectos de la cuarentena impuesta por el gobierno local. Conclusión: Nivel mundial existe suficiente evidencia para relacionar algunas condiciones y parámetros ambientales con un aumento en la morbilidad y mortalidad por COVID-19. Las evidencias a nivel nacional aún son escasas.
Abstract Introduction: Several investigations have attempted to establish the impact of some meteorological and environmental parameters on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, considering each country's geographical characteristics and seeking to mitigate the disease's advancement by controlling these factors. Objective: Analyze the evidence on the possible relationship between environmental factors, morbidity, and mortality due to SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19, both globally and within Colombia. Methodology: A comprehensive review of the scientific literature was carried out in the electronic databases. Additionally, the impact of some environmental variables and the severity of COVID-19 cases were analyzed during the period from April 8 to July 29, 2020, for the city of Bogotá. Results: The correlational analysis between the ICU admission rates in Bogotá and the environmental factors like temperature, PM2 5, O3, NO, NO2 y CO levels, and ozone concentration showed an inversely significant relationship. Meanwhile, there was a positive correlation between the levels of nitrogen oxides (NO/NO2) and carbon monoxide (CO). Some of these results could be related to the effects of the quarantine imposed by local governments. Conclusion: Globally, there is enough evidence to link environmental conditions and parameters with increased morbidity and mortality for COVID-19. Evidence at the national level is still scarce.
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Humans , Male , Female , Morbidity , Mortality , Environment , COVID-19 , Meteorological ConceptsABSTRACT
Objective@#To evaluate the feasibility of autoregressive integrated moving average with explanatory variables ( ARIMAX ) model including meteorological factors on the prediction of influenza-like illness ( ILI ), so as to provide a basis for the monitoring and early warning of influenza.@*Methods@#The ILI data reported by four sentinel hospitals in Yuhang District of Hangzhou from the 1st week of 2014 to the 26th week of 2018 was collected, as well as the meteorological data during the same period. The ARIMAX model was established using the percentage of ILI cases in total outpatients ( ILI% ) data from the 1st week of 2014 to the 52nd week of 2017 and the meteorological factors selected by Lasso regression model. The ILI% from the 1st to 26th week of 2018 was predicted and compared with the actual values to verify the ARIMAX model.@*Results@#From the 1st week of 2014 to the 26th week of 2018, a total of 60 419 cases of ILI were reported by the four sentinel hospitals of Yuhang District, with ILI% of 1.29%. Lasso regression analysis showed that there was a positive correlation between weekly average absolute humidity and ILI% ( r=27.769 ), and a negative correlation between weekly average temperature and ILI% ( r=-0.117 ). The ARIMAX (1, 0, 0) ( 1, 0, 0 )12 with weekly average temperature and absolute humidity was selected as the optimal model, with the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) value of 81.30 and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value of 15.77%. The MAPE value of the ARIMAX model predicting the ILI% from 1st to 26th week of 2018 were 43.75%.@*Conclusion@#The ARIMAX model including meteorological factors can be used to predict the prevalence of ILI, but the accuracy needs to be promoted.
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RESUMEN La arveja arbustiva tiene características potenciales para la agroindustria y comercio en fresco y puede ser una alternativa para la zona cerealista de Nariño. La presente investigación, se realizó en dos municipios (Yacuanquer y Guaitarilla), pertenecientes a la zona cerealista de Nariño, durante tres épocas de siembra, en el 2017. La combinación de localidades por épocas constituyeron los seis ambientes estudiados. Se evaluaron ocho líneas de arveja arbustiva por número de vainas por planta, adaptabilidad y estabilidad fenotípica, para rendimiento en vaina verde y reacción a enfermedades foliares. En número de vainas sobresalieron GRICAND404 y GRICAND402. El análisis de adaptabilidad y de estabilidad fenotípica permitió identificar, como ambientes favorables, a Yacuanquer abril, Guaitarilla abril y Yacuanquer marzo; GRICAND405, con un rendimiento promedio de 9,27t.ha-1, se consideró una línea adaptable y predecible en los seis ambientes evaluados y GRICAND406, con 9,07t.ha-1, fue predecible y mostró mejor adaptación a los ambientes más favorables. En reacción a las enfermedades evaluadas, todas las líneas fueron susceptibles al ataque del complejo Ascochyta y el porcentaje de infestación de la enfermedad, se evidenció mayor en épocas muy lluviosas, como la época 1 (siembra de marzo) y disminuyó en épocas secas, como la época 3 (siembra de mayo); el ataque de Oídio, se evidenció mayormente en la época de menor precipitación (época 3), siendo resistente la línea GRICAND402.
ABSTRACT The shrub pea has potential characteristics for agroindustry and fresh trade and can be an alternative for the cereal zone of Nariño. The present investigation was carried out in two municipalities (Yacuanquer and Guaitarilla) belonging to the Nariño cereal zone during three sowing seasons in 2.017; the combination of the localities by the times was the six environments studied. Eight shrub pea lines were evaluated by number of pods per plant, adaptability and phenotypic stability to yield in green pod and reaction to foliar diseases. The number of pods stood out GRICAND404 and GRICAND402. The analysis of adaptability and phenotypic stability made it possible to identify the favorable environments for Yacuanquer april, Guaitarilla april and Yacuanquer march; GRICAND405 with an average yield of 9.27t.ha-1 was considered the adaptable and predictable line in the six environments evaluated and GRICAND406 with 9.07t.ha-1 was predictable and showed better adaptation to the most favorable environments. In reaction to diseases, all the lines were susceptible to attack by the Ascochyta complex and the percentage of infestation of the disease was greater in very rainy seasons such as season 1 (march sowing) and decreased in dry seasons such as season 3 (planting of may), the attack of Oídio was evidenced mainly in the period of least precipitation (season 3), being resistant the GRICAND402 line.
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In recent years, the impact of meteorological factors on health and injury has been paid more and more attention. Severe weather events were considered to be an important risk factor for traffic accident injuries. Evidence from a large number of epidemiological studies suggests that meteorological factors, including high temperatures, rainfall, snowfall, wind and visibility, might be related to the occurrence of traffic accidents. This systematic review attempts to summarize the current research status of meteorological factors on traffic accident injury, systematically review the relationship between meteorological factors and traffic accident injury, and discuss how to further carry out related research.
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Objective To analyze the influence of meteorological factors on the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases in Urumqi, Xinjiang, and establish an ARIMAX (autoregressive integrated moving average model-X) model to make short-term prediction of the number of ILI cases, so as to provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of influenza in Urumqi. Methods The number of ILI cases in Urumqi from January 2015 to September 2017 and meteorological data of the same period were used to establish ARIMAX model and predict the number of ILI cases in Urumqi from October 2017 to March 2018. Results The ARIMA (0,1,1) (1,1,0)12 model was established from January 2015 to September 2017, AIC = 200.09. According to residual correlation function (CCF), there was a positive correlation between monthly average relative humidity and ILI cases, and a negative correlation between monthly sunshine hours and ILI cases. The average monthly relative humidity and monthly sunshine hours were taken as influencing variables to establish the ARIMAX model. Among them, the ARIMAX model incorporating the lagging order of 0 of monthly sunshine hours had the smallest AIC (AIC=197.63), and all parameters of the model were statistically significant. Compared with the univariate time series ARIMA model, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of fitting was reduced by 1.3687%, the predicted MAPE was reduced by 5.25%, and the prediction accuracy was improved. Conclusion The ARIMAX model with meteorological factors established in this study can better predict the incidence trend of ILI cases in a short time, providing evidence for influenza surveillance and prevention and control.
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Background: Leptospirosis is a common zoonosis caused by bacteria, Leptospira. The core determinants of the disease are the presence of carrier animals, environmental factors and the interaction between man, carrier and the environment. Understanding the type of relation between these factors and leptospirosis will help in controlling the disease. The current study intends to find the trend of leptospirosis cases, to forecast the disease and to correlate number of cases of leptospirosis with meteorological factors.Methods: The data of leptospirosis cases and the meteorological factors in Thrissur district were collected and entered in MS- Excel and statistical analysis was done using SPSS-16.0. For analysing the trend and to forecast the same, time series analysis method was used. The correctness of the model was tested using Ljung-Box statistics.Results: Time series chart, autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation show leptospirosis follows a seasonal trend. Forecasting of leptospirosis cases from July 2018 to May 2019 made by the model matched with original number reported in Thrissur district. Cross correlation of total rainfall and total rainy days showed that leptospirosis peak approximately 1 month after the onset or together with the rain (lag-1 and 0, r0.471 and 0.380 for total rainfall, lag-1 and 0, r0.501 and 0.469 for total rainy days). Humidity positively affects number of leptospirosis cases (lag-1 and 0, r0.464 and 0.435). June to October, seasonally adjusted factor (SAF) was >100% with highest SAF in August (202.2%).Conclusions: Leptospirosis shows a seasonal trend with more cases in June to October and correlates with change in meteorological factors of the region.
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Objective@#To investigate the correlation of meteorological factors with the numbers of marmots and parasitic fleas in the plague foci of Himalayan marmot in Subei County and Sunan County of Gansu Province.@*Methods@#The surveillance data(from Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention) of natural plague foci of Subei, Sunan of Himalayan marmot from 1982 to 2016 and the meteorological factors data (from China Meteorological Data Sharing Service Network) such as annual average temperature, rainfall and relative humidity during the same period were collected. The correlation between marmot density, body flea index and meteorological factors were analyzed by SAS 9.3 software. Based on the meteorological data as an independent variable in current year and previous 1, 2, and 3 years (relative to previous 1, 2, and 3 years as the reference), the marmot density as the dependent variable, the time series semiparametric generalized additive model (GAM) was established to quantitatively study the nonlinear effect of meteorological factors on the marmot density by R2.3.2 software.@*Results@#From 1982 to 2016, the marmot density in Subei County of Gansu Province was 0.29-6.63 per hectare, and the body flea index range was 0.04-4.56; the marmot density in Sunan County of Gansu Province was 1.22-7.92 per hectare, and the body flea index range was 0.06-0.42. In Subei County, the marmot density was correlated with the previous 1 year rainfall and relative humidity, respectively (r= 0.43, 0.36, P < 0.05), and negatively correlated with the average temperature of the year and the previous 1, 3 years (r=-0.58,-0.55,-0.41, P < 0.05). In Sunan County, the marmot density was correlated with the relative humidity of the year and the previous 1 year rainfall and relative humidity, respectively (r= 0.36, 0.57, 0.43, P < 0.05). In Subei County, the body flea index was negatively correlated with the average temperature of the year and the previous 1, 2, 3 years, respectively(r=-0.57,-0.43,-0.31,-0.37, P < 0.05). In Sunan County, there was a negative correlation between the body flea index and the average temperature of the year and the previous 1, 2, 3 years (r=-0.71,-0.46,-0.38,-0.40, P < 0.05). After controlling other influencing factors, the results of the GAM showed that for every 1 mm increase in rainfall of the year in Subei County, the marmot density increased 0.93%; for every 1% increase in relative humidity of the previous 3 year in Subei County, the marmot density increased 25.34%; for every 1 mm increase in rainfall of the previous 3 year in Sunan County, the marmot density increased 1.69%.@*Conclusions@#The numbers of marmots in the plague foci of Himalayan marmot in Subei County and Sunan County of Gansu Province are closely related to rainfall and relative humidity, and the influence has different hysteresis effects. Surface temperature is a important factor affecting the population of parasitic fleas.
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Objective@#To study the correlation between meteorological factors and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Xinjiang) so as to provide scientific evidence for the early warning, prediction, prevention and control of HFMD.@*Methods@#Data on HFMD surveillance and related population was collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention from 2011 to 2018. Meteorological data was obtained from http://www.tianqihoubao.com. Correlation analysis on meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD in Xinjiang was conducted, using the Excel 2007, SPSS 17.0, and Spatial Distribution Map by ArcGIS 10.2 software.@*Results@#HFMD usually occurred between April and July. Numbers of patients reached the top in May and June. Temperature was positively correlated with the incidence of HFMD (r=0.370, P<0.01) while precipitation was positively correlated with the incidence of HFMD (r=0.747, P<0.01). The temperature threshold appeared as 5 ℃-35 ℃ for the incidence of HFMD. Interval period was one month between the peak of both the incidence of HFMD and the precipitation. A power function relationship (y=0.009 4x2.332 9, R2=0.898 9) was noticed between the precipitation and the incidence of HFMD.@*Conclusions@#The incidence of HFMD was closely related to the meteorological factors including temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang during 2011-2018. Our findings have provided evidence for the development of early warning system on HFMD in Xinjiang.
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Objective @#To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of heatstroke and its correlation with meteorological factors in Shaoxing in 2017,and to provide evidence for heatstroke prevention and control.@*Methods @#The data of heatstroke cases and the daily meteorological indexes were collected from July 2017 to August 2017 in Shaoxing to describe the spatial,temporal and population distribution of heatstroke cases. The correlation between heatstroke and meteorological factors was analyzed by multivariate logistic regression model.@*Results @#A total of 759 cases of heatstroke were reported,with an average age of（53.3 ±17.9）years. There were 487 males cases（64.16%）and 272 female cases（35.84%）. There were 618 cases of mild heatstroke（81.42%）and 141 cases of severe heatstroke（18.58%）. There were six cases of death from severe heatstroke,and the mortality of severe heatstroke was 4.26%. Minimum temperature（rs=0.851,P<0.001）,maximum temperature（rs=0.726,P<0.001）and wind speed（rs=0.285,P=0.025）were positively correlated with the incidence of heatstroke,and relative humidity（rs=-0.693,P<0.001）and rainfall（rs=-0.414,P=0.001）were negatively correlated with the incidence of heatstroke. The results of logistic regression analysis showed that high daily minimum temperature was a risk factor for severe heatstroke（OR=1.854,95%CI：1.606-2.140）.@*Conclusion@# The mortality of severe heatstroke patients was high in Shaoxing,the daily minimum temperature was correlated with severe heatstroke.